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Next session · the S&P 500

Tuesday · Sep 29

Live · updated 4m ago
DeciferedTuesday · Sep 29

What Tuesday turns on: Futures heavy.

Futures heavy is the weight pulling Tuesday lower. Most likely a small move, with about a 60% lean lower. A session like this can still swing either way.

What tomorrow could doThe whole spread, not one number. Higher means more likely.60%lower40%highertoday
Most likelybetween -1.59% and +1.09%

Red is the chance of a lower close, green a higher one. A normal-sized day expected, leaning slightly lower. The dashed line is the options crowd's own spread.

Our prediction
Lower60% lean lower

Conviction held near a coin flip until our track record proves the signal

What is moving the callThe changes that shifted into this session, versus the steady backdrop.
Futures heavy
The options crowdMixed
usthe crowdtodayhighera drop

Mixed signals from the options crowd. The options pricing is even on direction, and broadly agrees on the size of the move. Options activity looks about normal for direction.

Options activity looks about normal for direction.

Have we earned it? Our honest scorecard
✗✗✗✗✓✓✓✓✓✗

We called 5 of the last 10 sessions right. A coin flip on direction is about half. We keep score in the open.

Each call is marked only on the move from the open to the close, the part of the day still ahead when we make it. We restarted the score on 8 Sept.

What to watch

Whether the overnight move in futures holds into the 9:30 open, or fades in the first half hour.

The readings behind the call

ES/NQ overnight strongly red

Futures heavy

Updated 4m ago · 11 signals

An outlook built from live market data. It is not a forecast anyone should rely on, and it can be wrong.

Market intelligence only. Not financial advice, not a recommendation, and not an offer to buy or sell any security. No trade execution.